Rapid Intensification Guidance EP152026 261007 12UTC Storm Located at : 25.80 160.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 86.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 66.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 105.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.0 29.6 30.5 29.2 28.8 46.4 47.9 67.0 U N N N N VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 74.0 84.0 79.0 58.0 45.0 48.0 47.0 48.0 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -11.0 15.0 34.0 34.0 49.0 46.0 94.0 75.0 U U N N N N F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 29.0 28.0 32.0 33.0 39.0 43.0 43.0 39.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -4.0 13.0 19.0 21.0 37.0 45.0 43.0 F F U VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.9% 2.6% 2.2% 25kt / 24h 6.2% 13.0% 9.6% 30kt / 24h 3.3% 8.3% 5.8% 35kt / 24h 2.4% 7.9% 5.2% 40kt / 24h 0.6% 5.7% 3.1% 45kt / 36h 2.8% 3.8% 3.3% 55kt / 36h 0.5% 0.9% 0.7% 55kt / 48h 2.2% 2.4% 2.3% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 65kt / 72h 3.4% 0.2% 1.8% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.50 EP152026 261007 12UTC Storm Located at : 25.80 160.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 105.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.0 29.6 30.5 29.2 28.8 46.4 47.9 67.0 N N N N N VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 29.0 28.0 32.0 33.0 39.0 43.0 43.0 39.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -4.0 13.0 19.0 21.0 37.0 45.0 43.0 U U F VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.1% 3.2% 1.7%