Rapid Intensification Guidance EP152026 261008 00UTC Storm Located at : 26.90 156.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 44.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 35.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.10 F TC SIZE [%] 100.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.9 29.7 27.7 27.4 40.8 48.4 66.2 62.9 N N N N VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 75.0 57.0 25.0 48.0 46.0 46.0 48.0 62.0 N N U N N N N N Potential [kt] 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 28.0 47.0 45.0 45.0 68.0 62.0 89.0 53.0 U N N N N N F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 28.0 34.0 35.0 36.0 44.0 48.0 47.0 51.0 VU VU VU VU VU U VU U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 11.0 21.0 21.0 27.0 35.0 36.0 47.0 24.0 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.7% 1.0% 0.9% 25kt / 24h 2.1% 7.0% 4.6% 30kt / 24h 1.0% 3.3% 2.1% 35kt / 24h 0.4% 2.8% 1.6% 40kt / 24h 0.3% 2.5% 1.4% 45kt / 36h 1.0% 1.8% 1.4% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 55kt / 48h 1.4% 1.0% 1.2% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 1.9% 0.1% 1.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.80 EP152026 261008 00UTC Storm Located at : 26.90 156.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F TC SIZE [%] 100.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.9 29.7 27.7 27.4 40.8 48.4 66.2 62.9 N N N N VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 28.0 34.0 35.0 36.0 44.0 48.0 47.0 51.0 VF VF VF VF VF F VF F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 11.0 21.0 21.0 27.0 35.0 36.0 47.0 24.0 F VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 1.9% 1.6% 1.7%