Rapid Intensification Guidance EP152026 261008 06UTC Storm Located at : 27.40 154.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 61.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 42.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.70 F TC SIZE [%] 111.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.6 22.2 23.3 28.4 39.3 53.3 60.9 66.0 N N N N U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 51.0 48.0 45.0 45.0 44.0 43.0 44.0 32.0 N N N N N N N U Potential [kt] 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 66.0 30.0 50.0 66.0 42.0 81.0 62.0 76.0 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 37.0 41.0 41.0 41.0 44.0 43.0 42.0 45.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 12.0 15.0 23.0 22.0 32.0 34.0 25.0 19.0 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.9% 2.8% 2.4% 25kt / 24h 7.9% 17.6% 12.8% 30kt / 24h 4.1% 9.9% 7.0% 35kt / 24h 2.5% 9.6% 6.1% 40kt / 24h 0.9% 8.5% 4.7% 45kt / 36h 3.3% 5.4% 4.4% 55kt / 36h 0.7% 1.3% 1.0% 55kt / 48h 3.1% 2.4% 2.7% 70kt / 48h 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 65kt / 72h 2.1% 0.2% 1.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.58 EP152026 261008 06UTC Storm Located at : 27.40 154.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F TC SIZE [%] 111.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.6 22.2 23.3 28.4 39.3 53.3 60.9 66.0 N N N N F VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 37.0 41.0 41.0 41.0 44.0 43.0 42.0 45.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 12.0 15.0 23.0 22.0 32.0 34.0 25.0 19.0 F F VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.1% 0.8% 0.5%