Rapid Intensification Guidance EP152026 261008 12UTC Storm Located at : 27.60 152.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 41.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 34.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.30 F TC SIZE [%] 111.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.9 22.4 29.0 32.6 39.2 54.0 58.1 70.5 N N N U U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 10.0 37.0 45.0 44.0 44.0 44.0 44.0 13.0 U U N N N N N U Potential [kt] 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 30.0 50.0 66.0 67.0 49.0 77.0 64.0 96.0 N N N N N N N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 37.0 38.0 40.0 38.0 41.0 38.0 37.0 41.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 16.0 22.0 23.0 34.0 34.0 36.0 25.0 24.0 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.2% 1.8% 1.5% 25kt / 24h 3.7% 11.0% 7.3% 30kt / 24h 1.7% 5.0% 3.4% 35kt / 24h 1.0% 4.6% 2.8% 40kt / 24h 0.4% 4.4% 2.4% 45kt / 36h 1.7% 3.6% 2.6% 55kt / 36h 0.3% 0.8% 0.5% 55kt / 48h 2.2% 1.5% 1.8% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 65kt / 72h 2.4% 0.2% 1.3% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.48 EP152026 261008 12UTC Storm Located at : 27.60 152.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 111.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.9 22.4 29.0 32.6 39.2 54.0 58.1 70.5 N N N F F VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 37.0 38.0 40.0 38.0 41.0 38.0 37.0 41.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 16.0 22.0 23.0 34.0 34.0 36.0 25.0 24.0 F VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 1.4% 0.7% 1.1%