Rapid Intensification Guidance EP152026 261009 00UTC Storm Located at : 28.20 149.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 10.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.90 F TC SIZE [%] 82.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.0 33.1 37.7 40.7 58.2 65.6 69.6 84.7 N U U VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 30.0 23.0 16.0 3.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 100.7 94.4 88.5 88.5 76.0 63.6 40.7 30.0 N N N N U U U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 71.0 71.0 36.0 59.0 82.0 52.0 77.0 26.0 N N N N N N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 41.0 39.0 43.0 46.0 44.0 45.0 49.0 54.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 20.0 34.0 31.0 44.0 29.0 21.0 31.0 10.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.7% 0.5% 0.6% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 1.1% 0.8% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.48 EP152026 261009 00UTC Storm Located at : 28.20 149.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.