Rapid Intensification Guidance EP152026 261009 12UTC Storm Located at : 29.40 147.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 7.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 7.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.60 F TC SIZE [%] 109.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 39.7 40.5 39.3 55.0 52.9 63.8 59.7 61.1 U U U VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 36.0 36.0 36.0 36.0 36.0 36.0 36.0 39.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 14.0 19.0 61.0 54.0 59.0 54.0 24.0 78.0 U U N N N N U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 45.0 46.0 44.0 45.0 41.0 41.0 46.0 37.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 28.0 30.0 26.0 21.0 14.0 7.0 -5.0 5.0 VU VU VU VU U N F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.7% 0.4% 0.6% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 1.7% 1.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.10 EP152026 261009 12UTC Storm Located at : 29.40 147.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 7.80 F TC SIZE [%] 109.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 39.7 40.5 39.3 55.0 52.9 63.8 59.7 61.1 F F F VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 45.0 46.0 44.0 45.0 41.0 41.0 46.0 37.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 28.0 30.0 26.0 21.0 14.0 7.0 -5.0 5.0 VF VF VF VF F N U N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 14.0% 2.2% 8.1%