Rapid Intensification Guidance EP152026 261010 18UTC Storm Located at : 31.70 145.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.00 F TC SIZE [%] 88.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 53.2 57.9 67.2 72.2 69.4 54.6 45.2 37.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 37.0 39.0 44.0 45.0 1.0 104.0 104.0 103.0 U U N N U F F F Potential [kt] 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 54.0 19.0 43.0 43.0 88.0 82.0 -32.0 -3.0 N U N N F N VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 40.0 37.0 37.0 36.0 31.0 25.0 28.0 33.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 17.0 6.0 3.0 2.0 -16.0 -14.0 -4.0 3.0 U N N N VF VF F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 1.0% 0.0% 0.5% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.12 EP152026 261010 18UTC Storm Located at : 31.70 145.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 88.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 53.2 57.9 67.2 72.2 69.4 54.6 45.2 37.2 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF F Humidity 700-500 hPa 40.0 37.0 37.0 36.0 31.0 25.0 28.0 33.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 17.0 6.0 3.0 2.0 -16.0 -14.0 -4.0 3.0 F N N N VU VU U N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 36.6% 4.6% 20.6%