Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162026 260920 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.20    124.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     57.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.4  24.6  23.9  22.0  22.4  19.4  21.9  25.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   6.0   7.0   9.0  13.0   8.0   6.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        122.3 122.3 122.3 122.3 113.6 107.4 107.4 109.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    85.0  89.0  77.0  65.0  58.0  78.0  78.0  71.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  73.0  73.0  73.0  68.0  65.0  62.0  58.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -6.0  -6.0  -5.0  -2.0   2.0   2.0   3.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.7%        3.7%        3.2%
 25kt / 24h       10.6%       26.5%       18.5%
 30kt / 24h        4.7%       13.6%        9.2%
 35kt / 24h        3.1%       13.6%        8.4%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%       12.5%        6.8%
 45kt / 36h        5.4%       31.5%       18.4%
 55kt / 36h        2.5%       15.0%        8.7%
 55kt / 48h        7.8%        2.2%        5.0%
 70kt / 48h        2.2%       10.1%        6.2%
 65kt / 72h        2.7%       13.9%        8.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.10

 EP162026 260920 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.20    124.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.4  24.6  23.9  22.0  22.4  19.4  21.9  25.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  73.0  73.0  73.0  68.0  65.0  62.0  58.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -6.0  -6.0  -5.0  -2.0   2.0   2.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%