Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162026 260920 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.10    125.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.2  28.0  23.8  21.9  21.9  26.7  30.4  30.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   7.0   9.0  10.0   7.0   6.0   7.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        117.3 117.3 117.3 112.9 108.6 106.5 108.6 102.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   106.0  86.0  81.0 104.0  95.0  96.0  95.0  80.0  F  F  N  F  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  74.0  72.0  72.0  69.0  65.0  62.0  54.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -5.0  -4.0  -2.0   0.0   2.0   2.0   1.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.4%        5.1%        5.7%
 25kt / 24h       15.3%       30.8%       23.1%
 30kt / 24h        8.2%       17.2%       12.7%
 35kt / 24h        5.3%       17.2%       11.2%
 40kt / 24h        5.3%       16.8%       11.1%
 45kt / 36h       10.1%       35.5%       22.8%
 55kt / 36h        4.5%       17.4%       11.0%
 55kt / 48h       10.1%        3.0%        6.5%
 70kt / 48h        3.0%        9.7%        6.3%
 65kt / 72h        2.1%        9.2%        5.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.06

 EP162026 260920 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.10    125.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.2  28.0  23.8  21.9  21.9  26.7  30.4  30.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  74.0  72.0  72.0  69.0  65.0  62.0  54.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -5.0  -4.0  -2.0   0.0   2.0   2.0   1.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%