Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162026 260920 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.50    126.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     71.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     68.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.2  26.8  23.7  24.7  24.0  30.8  32.5  31.6  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   8.0   8.0   8.0   7.0   7.0   9.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        112.3 112.3 107.9 107.9 101.5 101.5 103.6 103.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    98.0  72.0  90.0  75.0  71.0  83.0  61.0  38.0  F  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  75.0  74.0  73.0  68.0  66.0  61.0  55.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -7.0  -3.0   0.0   1.0   3.0   4.0   3.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.1%        4.1%        4.6%
 25kt / 24h       11.9%       24.9%       18.4%
 30kt / 24h        5.7%       14.0%        9.9%
 35kt / 24h        3.9%       14.0%        9.0%
 40kt / 24h        3.9%       12.2%        8.1%
 45kt / 36h        5.8%       23.2%       14.5%
 55kt / 36h        2.1%        9.3%        5.7%
 55kt / 48h        2.4%        5.1%        3.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        4.1%        2.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        3.9%        2.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.02

 EP162026 260920 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.50    126.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.2  26.8  23.7  24.7  24.0  30.8  32.5  31.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  75.0  74.0  73.0  68.0  66.0  61.0  55.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -7.0  -3.0   0.0   1.0   3.0   4.0   3.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%