Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162026 260921 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.80    127.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.5  26.1  24.6  18.6  22.4  27.6  28.4  24.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0   8.0   7.0   6.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        107.9 103.6 101.5  95.5  95.5  95.5  95.5  95.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    65.0  86.0  78.0  56.0  87.0  37.0  39.0   4.0  N  F  N  N  F  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  71.0  69.0  69.0  66.0  62.0  55.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -3.0  -3.0   0.0   3.0   4.0   5.0   2.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.3%        1.1%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        2.1%        7.2%        4.6%
 30kt / 24h        1.0%        2.8%        1.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        2.6%        1.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        2.3%        1.4%
 45kt / 36h        1.2%        7.3%        4.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        2.1%        1.3%
 55kt / 48h        1.4%        1.4%        1.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        1.1%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.5%        0.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.70

 EP162026 260921 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.80    127.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.5  26.1  24.6  18.6  22.4  27.6  28.4  24.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  71.0  69.0  69.0  66.0  62.0  55.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -3.0  -3.0   0.0   3.0   4.0   5.0   2.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%