Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162026 260921 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.30    128.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.9  25.2  23.5  23.5  24.8  34.7  33.9  27.9  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   5.0   5.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        112.9 106.5 106.5 100.5 100.5 100.5 100.5  94.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    90.0  50.0  80.0  52.0  84.0  76.0  23.0  33.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  68.0  68.0  66.0  63.0  57.0  51.0  40.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -3.0   0.0   2.0   4.0   3.0   2.0   2.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.7%        1.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.0%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        2.5%        1.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.5%        0.6%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.66

 EP162026 260921 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.30    128.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.9  25.2  23.5  23.5  24.8  34.7  33.9  27.9  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  68.0  68.0  66.0  63.0  57.0  51.0  40.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -3.0   0.0   2.0   4.0   3.0   2.0   2.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%