Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162026 260921 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.70    129.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     64.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     55.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.7  22.1  22.4  21.5  28.5  35.1  31.7  28.3  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   5.0   6.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        106.5 106.5 100.5 100.5 100.5 100.5 100.5  94.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    59.0  67.0  57.0  84.0  75.0  43.0   1.0  14.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  68.0  69.0  66.0  59.0  53.0  49.0  42.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   0.0   1.0   3.0   5.0   6.0   3.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        5.3%        3.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        2.3%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        2.0%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        4.9%        2.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        0.8%        0.9%        0.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.0%        0.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.54

 EP162026 260921 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.70    129.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.7  22.1  22.4  21.5  28.5  35.1  31.7  28.3  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  68.0  69.0  66.0  59.0  53.0  49.0  42.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   0.0   1.0   3.0   5.0   6.0   3.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%