Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162026 260922 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.10    130.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     68.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     39.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.5  24.1  28.1  29.6  36.3  30.9  24.2  25.4  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   7.0   6.0   6.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        101.5 101.5 101.5  95.5  95.5  97.4  89.8  91.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    87.0 115.0 117.0 146.0  81.0  26.0 -10.0 -17.0  F  F  F VF  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  70.0  67.0  64.0  57.0  52.0  45.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   4.0   5.0   7.0   5.0   4.0   3.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        2.0%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        4.8%       10.9%        7.9%
 30kt / 24h        1.6%        4.9%        3.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.8%        4.7%        2.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        3.6%        2.1%
 45kt / 36h        1.0%        8.0%        4.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        2.3%        1.3%
 55kt / 48h        1.6%        1.3%        1.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.4%        0.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.54

 EP162026 260922 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.10    130.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.5  24.1  28.1  29.6  36.3  30.9  24.2  25.4  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  70.0  67.0  64.0  57.0  52.0  45.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  F  F VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   4.0   5.0   7.0   5.0   4.0   3.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%