Rapid Intensification Guidance EP162026 260922 06UTC Storm Located at : 14.50 130.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 70.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 57.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.70 F TC SIZE [%] 106.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.9 29.6 33.6 34.4 36.4 26.5 27.3 27.2 N N U U U N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 7.0 4.0 7.0 6.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 96.5 90.5 90.5 90.5 90.5 92.4 84.8 77.7 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 109.0 81.0 101.0 111.0 54.0 40.0 -44.0 -81.0 F N F F N N VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 70.0 66.0 64.0 60.0 55.0 49.0 45.0 43.0 N N N N U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 5.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 4.0 3.0 1.0 N N U N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.3% 2.0% 2.2% 25kt / 24h 3.3% 7.5% 5.4% 30kt / 24h 1.2% 3.4% 2.3% 35kt / 24h 0.6% 3.2% 1.9% 40kt / 24h 0.6% 2.4% 1.5% 45kt / 36h 0.5% 4.7% 2.6% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 1.2% 0.7% 55kt / 48h 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.6% 0.4% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.42 EP162026 260922 06UTC Storm Located at : 14.50 130.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.