Rapid Intensification Guidance EP162026 260922 12UTC Storm Located at : 14.80 130.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 59.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 42.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.70 F TC SIZE [%] 104.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.3 35.8 36.3 37.1 30.4 24.9 24.3 23.1 U U U U N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 7.0 5.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 85.5 85.5 85.5 85.5 85.5 79.8 79.8 72.7 N N N N N N N U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 76.0 109.0 90.0 69.0 43.0 -8.0 -36.0 -60.0 N F F N N U VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 62.0 59.0 58.0 53.0 49.0 46.0 40.0 N N U U U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 9.0 6.0 4.0 5.0 5.0 1.0 0.0 N U N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 5.0% 2.1% 3.6% 25kt / 24h 3.6% 6.3% 5.0% 30kt / 24h 1.8% 2.7% 2.3% 35kt / 24h 1.3% 2.6% 1.9% 40kt / 24h 1.1% 2.1% 1.6% 45kt / 36h 0.7% 4.1% 2.4% 55kt / 36h 0.2% 1.1% 0.6% 55kt / 48h 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.36 EP162026 260922 12UTC Storm Located at : 14.80 130.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.