Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162026 260922 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.00    130.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     72.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     50.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.3  35.1  36.0  32.4  27.6  23.9  26.4  24.3  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   6.0   6.0   7.0   4.0   6.0   7.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.5  80.5  80.5  80.5  82.4  74.8  67.7  69.4  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    81.0  66.0  28.0  44.0  -4.0 -19.0 -19.0 -52.0  N  N  U  N  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  62.0  59.0  58.0  54.0  51.0  48.0  46.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0   8.0   9.0   6.0   6.0   3.0   1.0   0.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.5%        2.0%        3.8%
 25kt / 24h        3.3%        5.8%        4.6%
 30kt / 24h        1.8%        2.8%        2.3%
 35kt / 24h        1.8%        2.8%        2.3%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%        2.0%        1.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        3.9%        2.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        1.1%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        0.6%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.30

 EP162026 260922 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.00    130.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.