Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162026 260923 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.30    129.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     78.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     46.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.4  32.0  29.1  26.4  18.8  20.4  24.4  25.7  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   5.0   5.0   4.0   6.0   6.0   5.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.5  80.5  80.5  82.4  74.8  67.7  69.4  61.1  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    91.0  46.0  35.0  46.0  -1.0 -50.0 -64.0 -51.0  F  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  60.0  58.0  58.0  52.0  51.0  49.0  47.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   6.0   3.0   2.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.3%        1.3%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        2.3%        5.5%        3.9%
 30kt / 24h        1.6%        2.8%        2.2%
 35kt / 24h        1.6%        2.7%        2.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        1.8%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        4.2%        2.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        0.5%        0.7%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.32

 EP162026 260923 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.30    129.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.