Rapid Intensification Guidance EP162026 260923 06UTC Storm Located at : 15.80 128.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 100.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 98.00 VF IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 120.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.3 26.8 24.2 21.0 20.9 23.2 22.8 26.0 N N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 4.0 3.0 3.0 5.0 6.0 4.0 4.0 2.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 75.5 68.0 69.8 69.8 62.7 64.4 56.1 47.2 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 54.0 -1.0 42.0 -12.0 0.0 -70.0 -50.0 -23.0 N U N U U VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 59.0 57.0 55.0 51.0 52.0 48.0 48.0 N U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 2.0 0.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 6.4% 3.2% 4.8% 25kt / 24h 5.1% 9.9% 7.5% 30kt / 24h 3.6% 6.8% 5.2% 35kt / 24h 3.6% 6.8% 5.2% 40kt / 24h 1.0% 4.3% 2.6% 45kt / 36h 1.5% 7.0% 4.3% 55kt / 36h 0.6% 2.5% 1.6% 55kt / 48h 0.5% 0.8% 0.7% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.10 EP162026 260923 06UTC Storm Located at : 15.80 128.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65.