Rapid Intensification Guidance EP162026 260923 12UTC Storm Located at : 15.90 128.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 97.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 91.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 121.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.3 27.0 23.5 21.2 24.2 24.4 22.9 26.2 U N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 2.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 4.0 4.0 3.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 68.0 69.8 69.8 69.8 62.7 54.6 47.2 47.2 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 6.0 23.0 -11.0 0.0 -10.0 -35.0 -17.0 -11.0 U U U U U VU U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 58.0 56.0 53.0 52.0 51.0 52.0 51.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 4.8% 2.4% 3.6% 25kt / 24h 3.2% 7.4% 5.3% 30kt / 24h 3.1% 4.9% 4.0% 35kt / 24h 3.1% 4.8% 4.0% 40kt / 24h 0.5% 3.0% 1.8% 45kt / 36h 0.5% 4.7% 2.6% 55kt / 36h 0.3% 1.6% 0.9% 55kt / 48h 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.04 EP162026 260923 12UTC Storm Located at : 15.90 128.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65.