Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162026 260923 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.50    127.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     98.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     89.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.6  20.0  21.4  23.4  25.6  20.1  25.7  30.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   5.0   6.0   7.0   7.0   4.0   2.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         77.4  69.8  69.8  71.6  64.4  56.1  47.2  37.9  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    65.0  10.0   2.0  22.0 -42.0 -45.0   6.0 -10.0  N  U  U  U VU VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  60.0  57.0  58.0  57.0  53.0  50.0  51.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   4.0   5.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.0%        3.5%        3.7%
 25kt / 24h        4.1%        9.8%        6.9%
 30kt / 24h        2.6%        7.0%        4.8%
 35kt / 24h        2.6%        6.9%        4.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        4.4%        2.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.7%        4.9%        2.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        1.6%        1.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.16

 EP162026 260923 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.50    127.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.