Rapid Intensification Guidance EP162026 260924 00UTC Storm Located at : 15.60 126.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 99.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 91.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 115.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.3 18.3 22.0 21.2 22.3 20.9 27.7 34.1 F F N N N N N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 5.0 5.0 7.0 7.0 5.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 67.4 69.4 61.6 61.6 54.4 44.6 37.2 27.9 U U U U U U U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 5.0 0.0 11.0 4.0 -20.0 -14.0 10.0 2.0 U U U U VU U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 60.0 59.0 62.0 60.0 55.0 58.0 55.0 N N U N N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 5.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 3.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 32.9% 20.4% 26.6% 25kt / 24h 23.6% 31.5% 27.5% 30kt / 24h 23.6% 31.5% 27.5% 35kt / 24h 23.6% 31.5% 27.5% 40kt / 24h 9.3% 25.9% 17.6% 45kt / 36h 6.8% 14.5% 10.7% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.30 EP162026 260924 00UTC Storm Located at : 15.60 126.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75.