Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162026 260924 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90    126.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     95.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     88.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.6  21.2  22.1  23.9  21.1  27.6  34.5  39.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   7.0   7.0   6.0   4.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         59.8  59.8  61.6  54.4  44.6  35.8  27.9  20.9  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0  27.0  -6.0 -21.0 -39.0   2.0   8.0   0.0  U  U  U VU VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  59.0  60.0  58.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  50.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   4.0   3.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       14.5%        9.1%       11.8%
 25kt / 24h        8.7%       13.7%       11.2%
 30kt / 24h        8.7%       12.1%       10.4%
 35kt / 24h        8.7%       12.1%       10.4%
 40kt / 24h        3.0%        8.6%        5.8%
 45kt / 36h        1.9%        5.7%        3.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.04

 EP162026 260924 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90    126.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.