Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162026 260924 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30    125.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     96.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     85.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.4  22.7  29.5  24.5  25.3  31.6  39.6  40.6  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   6.0   4.0   4.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         56.6  47.7  49.4  39.6  39.6  32.2  22.9   9.7  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -8.0  -2.0 -19.0 -44.0 -32.0   6.0  -5.0   1.0  U  U  U VU VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  58.0  57.0  55.0  58.0  57.0  51.0  47.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   2.0   3.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.0%        5.3%        8.1%
 25kt / 24h        3.4%        5.1%        4.3%
 30kt / 24h        3.4%        4.0%        3.7%
 35kt / 24h        3.4%        3.8%        3.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        2.2%        1.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.70

 EP162026 260924 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30    125.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.