Rapid Intensification Guidance EP162026 260925 00UTC Storm Located at : 16.90 124.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 6.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 78.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 53.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 91.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.2 25.0 22.9 24.5 32.3 42.8 43.6 41.6 N N N N U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 37.7 37.7 29.6 29.6 22.2 12.9 5.9 -0.3 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -19.0 -30.0 -56.0 -20.0 12.0 -15.0 31.0 29.0 U VU VU VU U U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 57.0 57.0 59.0 60.0 56.0 51.0 50.0 U U U U N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 1.0 3.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 11.2% 3.5% 7.3% 25kt / 24h 1.3% 2.5% 1.9% 30kt / 24h 1.3% 1.8% 1.6% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.48 EP162026 260925 00UTC Storm Located at : 16.90 124.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90.