Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162026 260925 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.30    124.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     85.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     64.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.4  21.8  22.9  29.2  36.5  44.3  46.3  44.8  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   3.0   2.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         27.7  19.6  19.6  10.8   1.7  -5.2 -10.3 -10.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -30.0 -46.0 -29.0  -8.0   6.0 -16.0  54.0  -6.0 VU VU VU  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  53.0  54.0  55.0  54.0  49.0  46.0  47.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0   4.0   2.0   5.0   2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       17.4%        0.0%        8.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.18

 EP162026 260925 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.30    124.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.