Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162026 260925 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.70    123.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     77.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     54.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.8  22.5  27.9  29.5  40.2  48.2  49.0  44.3  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   3.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]          4.6   4.6   4.6  -4.2 -13.3 -20.2 -25.3 -24.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -32.0  -3.0  16.0  18.0  -5.0   0.0   0.0  27.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  56.0  54.0  55.0  53.0  46.0  48.0  48.0  U  U  U  U  U VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   4.0   2.0   0.0   3.0   1.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.08

 EP162026 260925 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.70    123.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.