Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162026 260925 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.00    123.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     68.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     44.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     65.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.7  30.0  32.6  38.7  49.3  53.1  51.2  48.8  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]          4.6   4.6  -4.2 -13.3 -20.2 -25.3 -25.3 -24.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0  25.0 -16.0  13.0   1.0  60.0  31.0  23.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  55.0  53.0  53.0  48.0  48.0  44.0  38.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   3.0   2.0   1.0   5.0   3.0  -5.0  -9.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.72

 EP162026 260925 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.00    123.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.