Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162026 260926 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.60    123.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     80.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     54.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     77.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.2  32.2  40.9  45.7  48.3  50.1  46.4  42.8  N  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]          0.8   0.8  -8.3  -8.3 -15.2 -20.3 -20.3 -11.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    25.0  42.0  35.0   2.0 -10.0  58.0   1.0   0.0  U  N  N  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  53.0  53.0  51.0  47.0  44.0  39.0  34.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   1.0   2.0   2.0   3.0   0.0  -4.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.34

 EP162026 260926 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.60    123.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.