Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162026 260926 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.80    123.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     48.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.9  39.7  45.7  48.8  48.9  48.7  50.8  31.3  U  U VU VU VU VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]          5.8   5.8  -3.3 -10.2 -10.2 -15.3  -6.8   0.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0  36.0   8.0 -13.0   6.0  43.0  21.0  22.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  49.0  50.0  48.0  42.0  38.0  35.0  36.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   4.0   2.0   4.0   2.0   0.0  -1.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.22

 EP162026 260926 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.80    123.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.