Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162026 260926 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.20    123.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     66.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        49.6  51.6  48.9  52.7  52.0  49.8  34.4  22.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         21.7  14.8  14.8   8.7   9.7   9.7  15.9  33.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0 -26.0 -23.0 -18.0  15.0  17.0  49.0  46.0  U VU VU  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  49.0  49.0  44.0  41.0  36.0  34.0  43.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   4.0   1.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.32

 EP162026 260926 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.20    123.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.