Rapid Intensification Guidance EP162026 260927 18UTC Storm Located at : 22.70 123.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -25.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 10.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.00 F TC SIZE [%] 68.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 54.7 51.8 43.7 45.9 33.1 18.8 16.7 19.3 VU VU VU VU U N F N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 49.7 49.7 49.7 49.7 55.9 72.2 70.8 78.0 U U U U U U U N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -22.0 51.0 48.0 12.0 51.0 51.0 18.0 20.0 VU N N U N N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 43.0 39.0 38.0 34.0 38.0 45.0 49.0 48.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 5.0 N N F N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 23.68 EP162026 260927 18UTC Storm Located at : 22.70 123.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.