Rapid Intensification Guidance EP172026 260920 18UTC Storm Located at : 14.50 105.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 37.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 25.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.90 F TC SIZE [%] 84.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 7.5 10.3 12.3 13.2 17.5 13.6 12.3 16.6 VF F F F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 32.0 31.0 32.0 34.0 38.0 36.0 41.0 48.0 U U U U U U N N Potential [kt] 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 59.0 54.0 74.0 108.0 44.0 86.0 85.0 161.0 N N N F N F F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 72.0 74.0 73.0 71.0 71.0 72.0 73.0 74.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 -2.0 -2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.3% 5.0% 3.2% 25kt / 24h 13.1% 42.4% 27.7% 30kt / 24h 6.3% 25.3% 15.8% 35kt / 24h 2.6% 25.3% 13.9% 40kt / 24h 2.6% 25.3% 13.9% 45kt / 36h 15.6% 49.1% 32.4% 55kt / 36h 8.6% 27.6% 18.1% 55kt / 48h 31.8% 38.8% 35.3% 70kt / 48h 16.3% 26.5% 21.4% 65kt / 72h 49.1% 57.8% 53.5% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.12 EP172026 260920 18UTC Storm Located at : 14.50 105.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 84.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 7.5 10.3 12.3 13.2 17.5 13.6 12.3 16.6 VU U U U N U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 72.0 74.0 73.0 71.0 71.0 72.0 73.0 74.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 -2.0 -2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%