Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP172026 260921 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.10    104.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.3  13.6  13.4  14.5  16.3  12.5  13.9  17.2  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   39.0  38.0  39.0  40.0  43.0  46.0  51.0  46.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0  28.0  65.0  94.0  76.0  98.0  98.0  83.0  N  U  N  F  N  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  68.0  68.0  70.0  70.0  71.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0   3.0   1.0  -3.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.0%        7.7%        5.4%
 25kt / 24h       20.0%       48.3%       34.2%
 30kt / 24h       11.9%       33.6%       22.7%
 35kt / 24h        4.7%       33.6%       19.2%
 40kt / 24h        4.1%       33.6%       18.8%
 45kt / 36h       22.8%       55.8%       39.3%
 55kt / 36h       14.4%       35.5%       25.0%
 55kt / 48h       43.1%       47.3%       45.2%
 70kt / 48h       24.3%       35.6%       30.0%
 65kt / 72h       51.5%       61.3%       56.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.28

 EP172026 260921 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.10    104.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.3  13.6  13.4  14.5  16.3  12.5  13.9  17.2  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  68.0  68.0  70.0  70.0  71.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0   3.0   1.0  -3.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%