Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP172026 260921 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.50    104.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     45.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.6  12.5  15.2  17.0  14.2  12.2  17.6  21.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   42.0  43.0  43.0  44.0  49.0  51.0  47.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    21.0  47.0  62.0  45.0 106.0  85.0 101.0  38.0  U  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  70.0  70.0  68.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   0.0  -3.0  -1.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.2%       19.7%       15.5%
 25kt / 24h       38.6%       67.2%       52.9%
 30kt / 24h       23.3%       57.8%       40.6%
 35kt / 24h       15.5%       57.8%       36.7%
 40kt / 24h       12.1%       57.8%       35.0%
 45kt / 36h       35.2%       74.5%       54.8%
 55kt / 36h       24.0%       61.2%       42.6%
 55kt / 48h       44.3%       61.5%       52.9%
 70kt / 48h       24.9%       53.3%       39.1%
 65kt / 72h       40.3%       64.3%       52.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.32

 EP172026 260921 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.50    104.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.6  12.5  15.2  17.0  14.2  12.2  17.6  21.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  70.0  70.0  68.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   0.0  -3.0  -1.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%