Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP172026 260921 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.50    103.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     80.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     64.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.3  14.3  16.6  16.3  13.4  12.8  21.6  20.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   39.0  40.0  42.0  42.0  47.0  48.0  47.0  47.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    57.0  54.0  65.0  55.0  59.0 107.0  28.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  69.0  69.0  71.0  71.0  71.0  69.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   2.0  -2.0  -4.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       34.3%       39.6%       36.9%
 25kt / 24h       61.7%       81.2%       71.5%
 30kt / 24h       48.3%       80.3%       64.3%
 35kt / 24h       43.3%       80.3%       61.8%
 40kt / 24h       34.9%       80.3%       57.6%
 45kt / 36h       50.2%       83.4%       66.8%
 55kt / 36h       33.9%       75.2%       54.6%
 55kt / 48h       45.0%       71.3%       58.2%
 70kt / 48h       25.1%       62.7%       43.9%
 65kt / 72h       27.7%       61.1%       44.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.34

 EP172026 260921 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.50    103.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.3  14.3  16.6  16.3  13.4  12.8  21.6  20.6  U  U  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  69.0  69.0  71.0  71.0  71.0  69.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   2.0  -2.0  -4.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%