Rapid Intensification Guidance EP172026 260921 18UTC Storm Located at : 15.20 103.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 30.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 82.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 64.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 92.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.2 17.6 15.7 13.1 11.1 22.0 19.2 18.6 F F F F F N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 38.0 39.0 41.0 43.0 47.0 48.0 50.0 45.0 U U N N N N N N Potential [kt] 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 79.0 52.0 69.0 102.0 57.0 113.0 56.0 28.0 N N N F N F N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 69.0 69.0 71.0 71.0 72.0 71.0 68.0 66.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 -2.0 -1.0 -3.0 -2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 72.6% 56.5% 64.6% 25kt / 24h 87.1% 91.2% 89.1% 30kt / 24h 87.1% 91.2% 89.1% 35kt / 24h 87.1% 91.2% 89.1% 40kt / 24h 87.1% 91.2% 89.1% 45kt / 36h 70.2% 79.9% 75.1% 55kt / 36h 47.6% 69.9% 58.8% 55kt / 48h 41.2% 66.8% 54.0% 70kt / 48h 22.5% 44.4% 33.5% 65kt / 72h 17.7% 36.9% 27.3% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.38 EP172026 260921 18UTC Storm Located at : 15.20 103.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 30.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 92.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.2 17.6 15.7 13.1 11.1 22.0 19.2 18.6 U N U U U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 69.0 69.0 71.0 71.0 72.0 71.0 68.0 66.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 -2.0 -1.0 -3.0 -2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%