Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP172026 260922 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.10    102.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    35.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     90.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     74.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.4  14.6  10.1  10.4  18.3  21.1  21.5  21.5  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   40.0  39.0  42.0  45.0  50.0  47.0  52.0  40.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    59.0  40.0  97.0  46.0  90.0  48.0  32.0  59.0  N  N  F  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  71.0  70.0  70.0  72.0  70.0  66.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       73.2%       50.5%       61.8%
 25kt / 24h       79.0%       84.1%       81.6%
 30kt / 24h       79.0%       84.1%       81.6%
 35kt / 24h       79.0%       84.1%       81.6%
 40kt / 24h       79.0%       84.1%       81.6%
 45kt / 36h       86.5%       71.0%       78.7%
 55kt / 36h       41.7%       58.7%       50.2%
 55kt / 48h       39.8%       34.4%       37.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.38

 EP172026 260922 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.10    102.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    35.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.4  14.6  10.1  10.4  18.3  21.1  21.5  21.5  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  71.0  70.0  70.0  72.0  70.0  66.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%