Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP172026 260922 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70    102.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    50.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     84.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     75.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.4   9.6  10.6  10.3  22.0  18.0  17.7  20.7  F  F  F  F  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  37.0  41.0  43.0  47.0  50.0  52.0  39.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    46.0  81.0  41.0  49.0  91.0  -5.0  16.0  42.0  N  N  N  N  F  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  69.0  70.0  71.0  70.0  70.0  67.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -6.0  -1.0   0.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       59.1%       23.3%       41.2%
 25kt / 24h       40.8%       37.5%       39.1%
 30kt / 24h       35.9%       35.9%       35.9%
 35kt / 24h       26.4%       35.9%       31.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.34

 EP172026 260922 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70    102.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    50.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.4   9.6  10.6  10.3  22.0  18.0  17.7  20.7  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  69.0  70.0  71.0  70.0  70.0  67.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -6.0  -1.0   0.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.5%