Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP172026 260922 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70    101.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   140.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   140.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    50.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     97.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         9.1   8.9  10.1  14.8  22.6  18.4  20.1  21.4  F  F  F  F  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   39.0  39.0  45.0  50.0  49.0  53.0  49.0  35.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    64.0  59.0  44.0 102.0  23.0  56.0  48.0  33.0  N  N  N  F  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  71.0  69.0  70.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       53.8%        0.0%       26.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.38

 EP172026 260922 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70    101.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   140.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   140.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    50.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         9.1   8.9  10.1  14.8  22.6  18.4  20.1  21.4  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  71.0  69.0  70.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%