Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP172026 260922 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.60    101.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   155.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   155.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    35.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     93.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     83.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.1  11.7  17.7  21.1  21.8  23.8  19.8  30.1  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  39.0  45.0  47.0  47.0  59.0  44.0  36.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    61.0  50.0 111.0  96.0  13.0  53.0  43.0  27.0  N  N  F  F  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  73.0  70.0  70.0  66.0  71.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -6.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.36

 EP172026 260922 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.60    101.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   155.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   155.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    35.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.1  11.7  17.7  21.1  21.8  23.8  19.8  30.1  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  73.0  70.0  70.0  66.0  71.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -6.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%