Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP172026 260923 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.80    101.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   140.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   140.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     90.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.3  21.0  21.6  18.1  17.5  18.8  27.7  30.9  F  N  N  F  F  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   46.0  49.0  48.0  48.0  59.0  41.0  36.0  39.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  17.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    60.0  56.0  43.0  -9.0  38.0  60.0  73.0   7.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  70.0  70.0  69.0  67.0  73.0  76.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0  -4.0  -5.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        0.0%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.42

 EP172026 260923 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.80    101.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   140.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   140.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.3  21.0  21.6  18.1  17.5  18.8  27.7  30.9  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  70.0  70.0  69.0  67.0  73.0  76.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0  -4.0  -5.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        4.7%        2.3%