Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP172026 260923 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20    101.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   130.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     96.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     62.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.9  24.0  20.5  20.2  18.7  23.4  27.0  26.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   52.0  49.0  48.0  52.0  52.0  36.0  36.0  34.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  32.0  25.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    34.0  46.0   3.0  45.0  48.0  41.0  50.0  25.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  67.0  65.0  64.0  68.0  72.0  75.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -3.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0  -4.0  -2.0  -5.0  F  N  N  N  N  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.7%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        1.4%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.42

 EP172026 260923 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20    101.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   130.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.9  24.0  20.5  20.2  18.7  23.4  27.0  26.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  67.0  65.0  64.0  68.0  72.0  75.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -3.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0  -4.0  -2.0  -5.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        6.8%        3.4%