Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP172026 260924 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40    103.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   140.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   140.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     97.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     77.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.0  17.0  17.3  16.8  22.8  28.9  28.3  28.8  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   51.0  54.0  51.0  42.0  34.0  39.0  26.0  14.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  17.3  10.7  -3.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0   4.0  14.0  16.0  60.0  27.0  31.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  63.0  66.0  68.0  71.0  75.0  78.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0   0.0  -3.0  -4.0  -4.0  -8.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       28.5%        0.0%       14.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.30

 EP172026 260924 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40    103.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   140.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   140.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.0  17.0  17.3  16.8  22.8  28.9  28.3  28.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  63.0  66.0  68.0  71.0  75.0  78.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0   0.0  -3.0  -4.0  -4.0  -8.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.2%        1.1%