Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP172026 260924 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.70    103.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   135.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   135.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     96.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     87.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.8  13.7  13.6  17.0  23.7  23.6  23.8  16.7  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   56.0  51.0  42.0  37.0  36.0  35.0  18.0  10.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  27.0  15.7   7.4  -3.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  49.0   7.0  52.0  72.0  18.0  10.0  -4.0  N  N  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  67.0  68.0  70.0  73.0  76.0  76.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0  -5.0  -5.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.7%        2.2%        3.0%
 25kt / 24h        2.1%        3.5%        2.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.14

 EP172026 260924 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.70    103.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   135.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   135.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.8  13.7  13.6  17.0  23.7  23.6  23.8  16.7  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  67.0  68.0  70.0  73.0  76.0  76.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0  -5.0  -5.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        3.3%        1.7%