Rapid Intensification Guidance EP172026 260925 00UTC Storm Located at : 17.10 106.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 130. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 130.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 99.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 88.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 113.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.5 16.2 20.7 24.2 22.6 26.5 16.1 12.5 F F N N N N F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 40.0 35.0 34.0 37.0 34.0 18.0 8.0 3.0 N U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 35.0 35.0 32.0 32.0 20.7 12.4 -5.7 -13.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -13.0 22.0 24.0 46.0 44.0 24.0 -13.0 14.0 U U U N N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 69.0 71.0 72.0 74.0 74.0 70.0 64.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 -1.0 -3.0 -6.0 -3.0 -4.0 N N N N N F N F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 3.4% 2.4% 2.9% 25kt / 24h 1.2% 2.8% 2.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.60 EP172026 260925 00UTC Storm Located at : 17.10 106.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 130. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 130.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F TC SIZE [%] 113.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.5 16.2 20.7 24.2 22.6 26.5 16.1 12.5 U U N N N N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 69.0 71.0 72.0 74.0 74.0 70.0 64.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 -1.0 -3.0 -6.0 -3.0 -4.0 N N N N N U N U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 4.1% 2.0%