Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP172026 260925 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.10    107.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   135.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   135.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     92.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     73.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.7  18.4  22.6  23.6  26.2  23.8  15.3  19.7  F  F  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  35.0  37.0  40.0  26.0  15.0   7.0   1.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         30.0  30.0  27.0  22.3  11.5   1.6 -10.7 -24.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -9.0  33.0  46.0  30.0  38.0  33.0  21.0 -15.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  72.0  72.0  71.0  75.0  73.0  65.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -6.0  -8.0  -1.0  -8.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.7%        4.3%        7.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.56

 EP172026 260925 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.10    107.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   135.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   135.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.7  18.4  22.6  23.6  26.2  23.8  15.3  19.7  U  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  72.0  72.0  71.0  75.0  73.0  65.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -6.0  -8.0  -1.0  -8.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.9%        1.5%