Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP172026 260925 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.10    108.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   155.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   155.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     82.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     69.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.2  25.7  27.3  27.8  29.0  19.6  13.6  19.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  37.0  40.0  34.0  20.0  10.0   6.0   0.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         10.0   7.0   2.3   0.1 -12.6 -25.6 -38.5 -44.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    30.0  59.0  34.0  26.0  55.0  -4.0  27.0 -23.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  74.0  72.0  65.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -4.0  -5.0  -6.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.36

 EP172026 260925 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.10    108.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   155.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   155.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.2  25.7  27.3  27.8  29.0  19.6  13.6  19.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  74.0  72.0  65.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -4.0  -5.0  -6.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.9%        1.4%