Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP172026 260925 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.10    108.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   150.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   150.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     80.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     73.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.9  23.5  23.8  26.6  23.9  18.8  20.1  26.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  40.0  37.0  26.0  16.0   9.0   3.0   0.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         12.0   7.3   5.1  -3.5  -7.6 -25.7 -33.5 -24.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    40.0  22.0   7.0   2.0  47.0  10.0   1.0 -27.0  N  U  U  U  N  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  71.0  72.0  73.0  72.0  67.0  63.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -3.0  -8.0 -10.0  -1.0  -9.0  -7.0  N  N  N  F  F  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.12

 EP172026 260925 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.10    108.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   150.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   150.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.9  23.5  23.8  26.6  23.9  18.8  20.1  26.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  71.0  72.0  73.0  72.0  67.0  63.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -3.0  -8.0 -10.0  -1.0  -9.0  -7.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.7%        1.3%