Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP172026 260926 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.20    109.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   150.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   150.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     91.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     82.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.7  23.6  23.6  24.1  18.5  15.6  26.1  31.2  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   40.0  37.0  27.0  22.0  11.0   5.0   0.0   4.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]          7.3   5.1   0.7  -3.5 -20.6 -33.5 -43.3 -20.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    20.0   7.0  29.0  38.0 -27.0  27.0   0.0  -9.0  U  U  N  N VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  71.0  72.0  71.0  71.0  64.0  64.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0  -5.0  -8.0  -5.0  -3.0  -5.0 -11.0  N  N  F  F  F  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.96

 EP172026 260926 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.20    109.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   150.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   150.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.7  23.6  23.6  24.1  18.5  15.6  26.1  31.2  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  71.0  72.0  71.0  71.0  64.0  64.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0  -5.0  -8.0  -5.0  -3.0  -5.0 -11.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        5.5%        2.8%